My own guesstimation is that the Michael Waltrip Racing Toyotas (Waltrip, Jarrett, and David Reutimann) will probably acquit themselves the best this season, and be reasonably competitive. They’ve got the most driving experience and past history of success, as well as some past champion provisional spots in Jarrett’s back pocket if they need them to make the field.

Bill Davis Racing is hard to figure, as they’ve got more experience as a team than Michael Waltrip Racing or Team Red Bull, but not quite the same talent in the driver’s seat, with Jeremy Mayfield and Dave Blaney driving. Mayfield is likely the wild card here, as far as how competitve the team will be, but it’s hard to predict whether he’ll bounce back from a tough year or continue to slide back in the standings, with all the turmoil of recent years taking its toil.

As far as Team Red Bull (which is fielding Brian Vickers and A.J. Allmendinger), who knows. Allmendinger is off to a bumpy start and the team seems resigned to  an up and down season for him (with likely more downs) as he gets experience in his first year in Cup racing. Vickers is obviously the best bet to post some decent results,  but he’s going to need some help. He’s obviously got the talent to make it happen, but Red Bull needs to step up and provide him with a consistently competitive car, something they’ve shown no real talent for doing thus far in their F1 efforts, despite splashing around a lot of cash.

Here’s the full field (which consists of drivers who won a Budweiser Pole during the 2006 season), along with their starting positions:

1: #44 Dale Jarrett

2: #10 Scott Riggs

3: #60 Boris Said

4: #83 Brian Vickers

5: #16 Greg Biffle

6: #5 Kyle Busch

7: #21 Ken Schrader

8: #48 Jimmie Johnson

9: #12 Ryan Newman

10: #01 Mark Martin

11: #24 Jeff Gordon

12: #31 Jeff Burton

13: #38 David Gilliland

14: #20 Tony Stewart

15: #9 Kasey Kahne

16: #37 Bill Elliott

17: #8 Dale Earnhardt Jr.

18: #19 Elliott Sadler

19: #2 Kurt Busch

20: #29 Kevin Harvick

21: #11 Denny Hamlin

NASCAR changed its Nextel Cup past champions provisional Wednesday to limit it to only six uses per season.

There had previously been no limit to how many times a past Cup champion could use the provisional to ensure a spot in the field each week. The provisional was set aside for the 43rd spot in the race to the most recent former champion who did not qualify based on speed.

Now, a driver can only use the spot six times in a year, and the limit also applies to the entire team so that a car owner can’t use multiple past champions in the course of one season.

“As NASCAR seeks to place more emphasis on competition, we have decided the time is right to limit the number of provisionals allowed,” said Robin Pemberton, NASCAR’s competition director. “We believe this revision brings the provisional policy in line with the continued growth of the sport.”

Jack Roush likely smiled at the news, just as Dale Jarrett started looking around for a dog to kick when he heard about the changes. DJ is the driver most affected by the changes, as his 1999 championship would have given him a free pass into races this year with his new Toyota team.

With the new rules, though, he’ll need to qualify based on speed, and can’t rely on the past champion provisional. That said, it’s hard to imagine he’ll struggle to qualify, and he still has six past champion provisionals in his back pocket to use, if and when he needs them.